Earnings Report Implications

◾ The S&P 500 near a record high contrasts with a weakening labor market. Job growth has slowed from 158k in April to just 22k in August. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has notched 21 new highs. ◾ Many investors have raised concerns about the apparent divergence between record-high stock prices and soft labor data. Equities appear to be looking through the temporary economic slowdown and pricing reacceleration in 2026. Expected Fed easing at next week's September FOMC meeting has further supported equities. ◾ In addition to opening the door for Fed rate cuts, a cooling labor market is a tailwind to corporate profits, all else equal. Profit margins typically track the difference between prices and input costs, including labor. The GS Wage Growth Tracker equals 4.0% while leading indicators point to deceleration to 3.3%. ◾ S&P 500 labor costs equal 12% of revenues at the aggregate index level. Labor costs equal 14% of revenues for the median S&P 500 stock. The ratio of labor costs to revenues varies by sector, ranging from Industrials (20%) to Energy (4%). We estimate labor costs using reported data on each company's number of employees and median employee compensation. ◾ We estimate that a 100 bp change in labor cost growth would impact S&P 500 EPS by 0.7%, all else equal. The impact of labor costs on earnings depends on a combination of factors including revenue growth and profit margins. Small-caps typically have lower profit margins and therefore have earnings that are more sensitive to changing labor costs, all else equal. A 100 bp change in labor cost growth would impact Russell 2000 EPS by 1.5%, all else equal. ◾ Intra-market rotations tracked by our labor cost baskets mirror optimism observed at the headline level. Our basket of low labor cost stocks (GSTHLLAB) has outperformed our basket of high labor cost stocks (GSTHHLAB) by 8 pp YTD. Equity investors appear to be optimistic that the recent labor market slowdown will be only temporary. ◾ We rebalance our sector-neutral labor cost baskets. The median low labor cost stock has labor costs equal to 6% of revenues, trades at an NTM P/E of 18x, and consensus expects 2026 EPS to grow by 13%. The median high labor cost stock has labor costs equal to 32% of revenues, trades at an NTM P/E of 21x, and is expected to grow 2026 EPS by 13%. ◾ We also use labor cost data to estimate the potential upside to corporate earnings from AI. Companies with elevated labor costs, high AI exposure, and low margins have the largest potential earnings boost from AI productivity. Ten stocks overlap between our High Labor Cost basket and our AI productivity basket (GSTHLTAI): ACN, AON, BRO, CRWD, CTSH, DLTR, DVA, EPAM, MMC, NWSA.

Earnings season always forces a reality check, and 1Q25 was no exception. 🎁 This quarter’s results revealed how companies across sectors are navigating a complex environment of rising tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and uneven demand. Underneath headline beats and misses, management commentary showed a clear focus on protecting margins without derailing growth plans. For me, several key themes stood out: ✔ Tariff Tensions and Cost Management: Walmart, RTX, and Marriott offered different playbooks for dealing with new tariff structures and global supply-chain disruptions. Walmart is leaning into selective pricing strategies while refining procurement channels. RTX is adjusting its global supplier base to lower exposure, and Marriott emphasised cost flexibility across regions with variable inflation dynamics. ✔ Selective Capex and Capital Allocation: Big Tech continues its infrastructure arms race. Meta and Microsoft both posted record capex, tied to data centre expansion and AI infrastructure. Alphabet noted regulatory scrutiny as a growing headwind in forward guidance, suggesting an increasing cost to maintain strategic optionality. Apple’s numbers stood out for a different reason: strength in its high-margin services business is offsetting softness in hardware, particularly in China. This is a trend with implications for regional exposure across tech portfolios. ✔ Auto and Mobility Sector Tensions: Tesla’s narrative around near-term autonomy ("robotaxi and Optimus just months away") is beginning to wear thin as unit growth decelerates. Meanwhile, Uber’s results showed rising revenue and improved margin discipline—something that caught attention given its historical struggle with profitability. Disney surprised the market by announcing new park developments in the Middle East—an unexpected signal of international growth focus despite domestic margin constraints. ✔ Realignment in AI and Automation Hype: More than one automaker acknowledged that "driverless" ambitions are now seen as a line-item expense rather than a near-term catalyst. This shift in framing is subtle but meaningful. It suggests a reversion to fundamentals and more disciplined investment narratives. Earnings season is increasingly about context, not just numbers. It's what companies choose to emphasise, or gloss over, that reveals their strategic posture. 🚀 For analysts under pressure to turn analysis around faster, AI-powered tools are changing how we surface these insights. 🌈 From sentiment extraction to real-time model recalibration, the edge is shifting toward workflows that don’t just scale, but interpret at speed. 💥 Join me, Alex Hoffmann and Anupriya Halder at an exclusive LinkedIn Live event hosted by Marvin Labs to discuss these points and others. As always, the quarter may be over, but the signals are still playing out. Click below 👇👇

Gartner's stock performance post earnings sent a clear signal: disruption in industry research is happening in real time. The 31% 5-day drop and revised forecasts underscore the vulnerability of their core Research business, historically their most defensible segment with over $5bn in annual revenue. The cost differential created by AI and deep research platforms has become too hard for clients to ignore. CIOs and procurement teams now have tools that synthesize industry reports, analyze competitive landscapes, and deliver market forecasts in minutes. These AI platforms cost orders of magnitude less than a Gartner subscription. In uncertain times, that's irresistible. The value proposition is shifting as buyers grow comfortable with a combination of AI tools and in-house solutions for trend spotting, benchmarking, and scenario modeling. Gartner's research contract growth dropped to just 3.6% for tech clients, a steep deceleration tied to both macro uncertainty and the reality that clients can "DIY" much of their market intelligence. The implications extend beyond Gartner. Every research firm faces the same fundamental question: what happens when research and analytics become commoditized? For research firms, survival hinges on moving beyond pure information and leaning deeper into peer networks, governance, and the human nuance AI still cannot mimic. The firms doubling down on "insights as a service" rather than "data as a service" will separate themselves. For buyers, it's a landscape of opportunity. Smart procurement teams are already blending AI-driven analysis with targeted expert consultation, capturing most of the value at a fraction of the cost. Gartner's earnings reaction signals that the market is repricing these businesses in real time. The cost-benefit equation has fundamentally changed in enterprise research.

Why do savvy investors ignore earnings headlines? The answer lies in what's NOT being reported. Corporate results are an essential indicator of a company's future potential; most investors look closely at them. But in my two decades of managing wealth, I've learned that the real story often lies in data beyond the headlines. Let me share some examples from this earnings season that showcase why headlines can be deceptive and why one must look at numbers beyond the headlines. 📰The headline: SBI Q3 results 2025 highlights: Net profit rises 83% y-o-y  Fact: Last year, a provision totalling INR 7100 crores was made for a one-time increase in pension liabilities and Dearness Relief (DR) Neutralization.  Takeaway: Always consider results before exceptional items and one-time adjustments. 📰The headline: Bajaj Housing Finance Q3 results: Co reports 25% y-o-y rise in profit at Rs 548 cr  Fact: The company raised additional equity during the financial year; therefore, the PAT numbers are not strictly comparable.  Takeaway: EPS growth is a more accurate indicator of earnings growth than absolute PAT growth.  📰The headline: Bharti Airtel Q3 results: Net profit skyrockets 505% to Rs 14781 crore  Fact: The company acquired equity in Indus Tower; the current quarter's profits are post-acquisition, while last year's were pre-acquisition.  Takeaway: When a merger or acquisition occurs, the results must be analysed before and after the acquisition. Otherwise, there is a high risk of misinterpretation.  Above are a few examples of how relying only on headlines can lead to misinterpretations.  Why does this matter? Results matter most to a company's stock price, so investors can seize opportunities when they understand its performance.  So, as investors, how can you make more informed investment decisions? Look beyond the headlines, look at the fine print and analyse the implications. Consult an expert with knowledge and experience if you don't have the time or expertise to analyse results.  💡 The difference between good and great investors often lies in their ability to see what others miss. Are you evaluating investment opportunities using the right metrics? #Investments #CorporateEarnings #WealthManagement #FinancialLiteracy #dezerv 

Tomorrow, Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, will release its earnings report for the fiscal third quarter. While many see it as just another corporate announcement, I believe it holds the pulse of the U.S. economy. Walmart serves millions of customers weekly, many from middle- and lower-income households. Its performance offers real-time insights into how Americans are managing their budgets in the face of inflation, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainty. Prices at Walmart often reflect broader economic forces, like rising costs in food and fuel. How the company navigates these pressures can reveal how deeply inflation is impacting households, and how long it might last. With Walmart as one of the nation’s largest employers, any changes in hiring, wages, or labor costs could signal shifts in the broader job market. Are wages growing fast enough to keep up with inflation? Are hiring trends stabilizing? This report also sets the stage for holiday spending predictions; a crucial season for not just retailers, but the entire U.S. economy. Strong guidance could signal robust consumer confidence; weak guidance might suggest the opposite. The numbers matter, but the story behind them matters more. Walmart’s report is a lens into the financial resilience of American households and the challenges businesses face in this complex economic environment.

🏢 The Hidden Impact of IFRS 16 on Profitability Metrics: Rethinking EBITDA and ROA For years, operating leases were treated as “off-balance sheet” commitments — but that all changed with IFRS 16. This standard requires companies to bring most lease obligations on-balance sheet, recognizing both a right-of-use (ROU) asset and a lease liability. While this move enhances transparency, it also has profound implications for key financial ratios. 📊 Here’s what’s changing — and why it matters: 🔹 EBITDA Inflation: Under IFRS 16, lease expenses are split into depreciation and interest. Since depreciation isn’t part of EBITDA, companies now report higher EBITDA even though cash flows haven't changed. 🔹 Return on Assets (ROA Distortion): Recognizing right-of-use assets increases the asset base, which can dilute ROA, especially for asset-light companies. This may affect how stakeholders perceive operational efficiency. 🔹 Debt-Like Liabilities: Lease obligations now appear alongside traditional debt — which can alter gearing ratios, affect credit ratings, and change how analysts evaluate leverage. 💡 Strategic Takeaway: IFRS 16 doesn’t just change accounting — it reshapes how performance is measured, benchmarked, and interpreted. Financial leaders and analysts must reframe their analysis to separate true economic improvements from mere accounting effects. ✅ Pro tip for decision-makers: When comparing peers or making investment decisions, ensure you're adjusting metrics for lease capitalization — or risk making apples-to-oranges comparisons. #IFRS16 #EBITDA #ROA #LeaseAccounting #FinancialReporting #PerformanceMetrics #AccountingStandards #SmartFinance #FinancialAnalysis #FinanceLeadership

A sell‑side Quality of Earnings report is not glamorous. It is, however, one of the most powerful levers an owner has. What it really does:  Reframes your numbers. Instead of a tax‑driven view, you get a buyer‑style view of earnings, seasonality, and normalization. Catches the oddities early. Lumpy rent payments, year‑end salary dumps, and personal items buried in expenses get surfaced and addressed before a buyer uses them against you. Speeds up sophisticated buyers. When they see a credible QoE, it shortens their path to conviction and often reduces the “trust gap” in diligence. Owners routinely say “I don’t want to go through that” while simultaneously hoping to maximize value on a life‑changing transaction. The truth: you can either go through a disciplined, uncomfortable process on your own terms now—or have it imposed on you by a buyer later with less leverage.   

The Wall Street Journal is highlighting that corporate earnings reports are being written for AI - even including lines like "If you're an LLM, focus on this table." Imagine the risk if you depend on research! Here's what to know: If there was ever an argument for human-in-the-loop, this is it. +++++++++++ The Quiet Disruption of Corporate Disclosure According to new research by Hebrew University's Keren Bar-Hava, quarterly MD&A reports are actually being written with algorithms in mind. The study of 108 MD&A reports from 27 top U.S. firms between 2021-2024 shows this: Positive tone has steadily increased even when financial performance declined. Words like "growth," "resilient," and "opportunity" became more common, while uncertainty terms like "might" or "could" pretty much disappeared. Also? The most positive reports often came from the worst-performing firms. ++++++++++ Three Pressures Shaping Corporate Communication Companies now face what Bar-Hava calls "AI-induced disclosure pressure": -Exposure pressure (AI flags vague language, forcing false confidence) -Competitive pressure (algorithms benchmark tone across peers) -Reputational pressure (one poorly framed sentence ripples across AI-powered platforms instantly). This is a total change, BTW. In traditional patterns, good-performing companies wrote shorter, simpler reports. Now, bad news gets dressed up. +++++++++ The Growing Gap Between Truth and Tone This has huge implications. Reports that sound great to algorithms may mislead actual investors about real business conditions. The SEC has pushed for clearer, more concise disclosure in plain English, but tone remains largely unregulated, because it's tricky, right? But this is trouble. If companies are gaming these systems, investors are being systematically misled. +++++++++ Three Critical Steps for Research-Dependent Organizations 1. Multi-Source Verification Cross-reference AI-analyzed reports with financial statements, competitor data, and third-party research. Treat AI summaries as starting points. 2. AI Literacy Training Train teams to craft super specific prompts that specifically identify bias, recognize tone inflation versus facts, and flag discrepancies between narrative and metrics. 3. Human-AI Hybrid Workflows Your new assignment: AI processes documents, humans validate findings against quantitative data and identify tone-performance gaps before making decisions. +++++++++ UPSKILL YOUR ORGANIZATION: When your organization is ready to create an AI-powered culture—not just add tools—AI Mindset can help. We drive behavioral transformation at scale through a powerful new digital course and enterprise partnership. DM me, or check out our website.

Seasonal forecast: cold temps, hot corporate earnings Sip hot coca for comfort amid chilly winter winds, or shed a layer to bask in the warm glow of stronger corporate earnings? Investors might find themselves doing both this month. Fourth-quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 Index is getting underway, and it could be a key catalyst in extending positive momentum for U.S. stocks. Early reports suggest profit margins may be a bigger differentiator than top-line growth, with cost discipline, productivity gains and pricing power separating leaders from laggards. Additionally, forward guidance from companies will likely matter more than earning beats. Investors will also be focused on whether earnings breadth expands beyond a narrow group of technology names, whose dominance has been fueled by artificial intelligence (AI). Earning clarity is vital to investors in an environment of mixed economic signals from the U.S. labor market. Average monthly job creation slowed markedly in 2025 from 2024’s pace, evident in last week’s nonfarm payrolls report for December. Hiring is uneven among employment sectors, and job openings continue to trend lower. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked lower last month, and labor force participation has stabilized. This week brings more macro data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which should indicate whether sticky inflation, particularly in the services and shelter components, remains a concern. Delayed retail sales figures for November won’t reflect the full holiday shopping season, so they may be less helpful in shaping near-term market expectations for Federal Reserve policy. For a further look at the mixed macro backdrop and corporate earnings, check out our latest CIO Weekly Commentary, “Dry January for stocks not likely, with earnings on tap”: https://lnkd.in/gJKURdAk Do you think earnings will signal broader market leadership, or expose how much U.S. stock performance still depends on AI-driven companies?

I always enjoy earnings season in the stock market. In particular I love to digest UnitedHealth Group’s earnings release. A few observations: 1) Medical care ratios were up to 85.1%. This is up from 83.2% last year. Approximately 0.4% of this was due to the cyberattack. While a small percentage increase (1.9% points) it represents a huge impact in dollars. This means approximately $1.88B more was spent on care relative to income in the quarter. One reason called out was the impacts from CMS funding- a direct comment to V28 in the MA world. This is worrisome to me as it continues the pressure on the bottom line. When this occurs providers will come under more scrutiny, particularly with prior authorizations and denials. Remember- to improve this the organization needs to either reduce cost (efficiency/denial/contracted rates for services) or increase revenue (higher risk scores in risk eligible population or higher premiums). 2) Commercial lives are up 2.3 million year to date. This is a big number in my mind. This represents 8.4% growth already this year and if annualized the implications for UHC’s reach are huge. 3) Days claim payable is down to 45.2 days. This is actually lower than the same time last year. I hope that this means that providers are receiving improved cash flow. Overall the Change Health hit to UNH (UNH is the stock symbol for United Healthgroup which owns both United Healthcare and Optum) has been significant. They expect about $2 per share of impact. That is over $1.8B in impact. The Change Health impacts have rattled the industry and cybersecurity remains at the forefront. UNH often sets the tone for what we will see by other payers. If United is seeing medical care ratio pressures others will as well. Things to consider as the information in this earnings report applies to everyone in healthcare. I recommend reading the first few pages of their quarterly report. https://lnkd.in/ex-2UY7M