Navigating Market Volatility

Picture of the Week: European power prices are now lower than pre-Ukrainian times! The significant reduction in #European wholesale power prices in 2024 compared to 2021, especially in countries like #Spain and #Portugal, can be attributed to several key factors: 1. Expansion of Renewable Energy: Spain and Portugal have made substantial investments in #renewable energy, particularly #solar and #wind power. Since the onset of the Ukrainian crisis, these two countries have added nearly 20 GW of solar and wind capacity, which now represents about 15% of their total installed electricity capacity. This massive build-out of renewables has played a crucial role in reducing reliance on fossil fuels and lowering electricity prices. As a result, Spain has seen a dramatic increase in the share of #electricity generated from #renewables, rising from 51% in 2021 to 65% in 2024. This shift has significantly contributed to reducing wholesale power prices by half compared to 2021 levels. 2. Diversification Away from Russian Gas: The European Union, along with individual countries, has made concerted efforts to reduce dependence on #Russian #naturalgas, which was a major factor driving high energy prices during the 2022/2023 period. These efforts included securing alternative gas supplies, increasing LNG imports, and enhancing gas storage capacities. The shift away from Russian gas, coupled with a mild winter and lower overall demand for gas, has eased pressure on gas prices, which in turn has lowered electricity prices across much of Europe. 3. Energy Efficiency Measures: Governments across Europe have implemented #energyefficiency programs aimed at reducing overall energy consumption. These measures, along with public campaigns promoting energy savings, have contributed to reducing electricity demand, helping to stabilize or lower prices. 4. Government and Industry Cooperation: There has been close cooperation between governments and energy companies to stabilize the energy market.

Agriculture Commodities Markets in the Age of Permanent Turbulence!! Over the past two months across three continents, surrounded by traders, millers, analysts and policymakers, one thing became very clear to me: the agriculture commodities business has entered an era where uncertainty is not a phase – it is the operating system. Learning from some of the sharpest minds reinforced my thoughts. What used to be a neat equation of production + stocks + freight = price is now being rewritten by politics. Wars, sanctions, sudden export bans and policy U-turns are often moving markets faster than fundamentals. If you are not tracking geopolitics as closely as you track crop reports, you are trading half-blind. This is why resilience is no longer a buzzword. Import-dependent countries are quietly rethinking food security – diversifying origins, building (or rebuilding) strategic reserves, and stress-testing “what if the main corridor shuts tomorrow?” scenarios. On the private side, companies are mapping alternate routes, backup ports and flexible sourcing models as seriously as they model yields. In such a world, risk management is not a luxury; it is survival. Futures, options and structured hedging tools are becoming the seatbelt of the trade. Volatility doesn’t just hurt margins – it can wipe out trust between farmers, traders and buyers if not managed with discipline and transparency. Logistics, too, is being reinvented. With traditional channels under stress, we are seeing the rise of new gateways, multimodal solutions and “green corridors” that tie together rail, road and emerging ports. Technology is quietly reshaping this layer – from smarter freight scheduling to better visibility across the chain. Running through all these conversations is a non-negotiable theme: sustainability. Climate stress, water risk, deforestation rules, ESG commitments and the rapid growth of biofuels are no longer side notes; they are changing trade flows, investment decisions and even which crops get planted where. My reflections: We urgently need agriculture commodities intelligence, not just data (provided by a large number of players) – integrated views that combine weather, policy, freight, currency and sentiment into actionable signals. The centre of gravity is shifting toward the Global South. How we integrate producers in Africa, Latin America and the Black Sea with demand centres in Asia will define the next decade. Finally, this is a people business. In rooms full of models and dashboards, the most valuable edge is still humility – the willingness to update your view when the world refuses to behave like last year’s spreadsheet. The “new normal” is noisy, but for those who stay prepared, collaborative and curious, it is also full of opportunity.

Most large-scale energy initiatives follow the same pattern: start with big commitments, roll out connections, figure out the policy later. Nigeria did the opposite. And that’s why it’s working. Instead of treating private investment as an afterthought, Nigeria built the policy framework first. And that made all the difference. What Nigeria Got Right - 1. A Structured Energy Compact – Nigeria created a clear, integrated policy that combines grid expansion, mini-grids, and decentralized solutions into a single plan. Other countries still treat off-grid power as an afterthought. 2. Private Sector Was Built Into the Model – Most African energy plans rely almost entirely on government spending. Nigeria understood that public money alone won’t be enough, so they de-risked the investment landscape for private players. 3. Policy Stability That Investors Can Trust – The biggest deterrent to energy investment is regulatory unpredictability. Nigeria structured clear rules around licensing, tariffs, and long-term market participation, giving businesses and investors the ability to plan long-term—not just react to political cycles. The Results Speak for Themselves - - Nigeria is now the leading mini-grid market in Africa. - Private capital is flowing into the energy sector at scale. - The policy model is structured for real expansion—not just short-term funding cycles. Now compare this to many other Mission 300 countries - - There’s no clear strategy to integrate decentralized and centralized power. - Investment risk is still too high for private capital to flow at scale. - The policy landscape remains too unstable for long-term planning. Nigeria isn’t perfect. But it’s one of the few places where energy policy is being built for growth, not just for the next round of funding. If Mission 300 countries want to make real progress, this is the playbook - - Stable, investment-friendly regulation - A clear plan that integrates all forms of power - Long-term market structures that attract capital at scale Energy access is an industry, not a one-time intervention. And Nigeria is proving that when the policy is right, the investment follows. #NigeriaEnergy #Mission300 #SmartInvestment #EnergyForGrowth

Today, the European Commission presented two flagship initiatives for a competitive Europe: the Clean Industrial Deal and the Action Plan for Affordable Energy. The message is clear: a secure, resilient and cost-efficient #energysystem is the basis for #economicgrowth and security of supply in Europe. To make this transformation as cost-effective as possible, we need to accelerate grid expansion, boosting electrification, and strengthen the interconnection and efficiency of the European energy market.   For Germany, I see the following key priorities: #SecurityOfSupply: We urgently need more capacity – at least 21 GW of additional controllable capacity – to integrate more renewables while ensuring security of supply for economic centers. Complementing state aid rules to speed up the approval of such mechanisms is a step in the right direction. Our preferred model: a central mechanism with a local component, as already used in Belgium. #Independence: Turning the North Sea into Europe’s green powerhouse is key to autonomy and cost-effectiveness. To accelerate development, we need pragmatic cost-sharing mechanisms among North Sea states now. We must also take major steps towards regional planning, identifying the most beneficial projects to implement as soon as possible. The upcoming North Sea Summit later this year is an opportunity we must seize. #TimeIsMoney: To unlock the benefits of a competitive energy system, we need to streamline approval procedures across Europe and swiftly implement RED III at the national level. Aligning EU and national policies within a well-structured governance framework would be a step forward. Smart cost-reduction measures – including reforms in network charges to incentivize flexibility – are also key. Massive investment in #grid #infrastructure over the next few years is essential to transform the energy system. But as the Commission rightly stated: “The cost of inaction is higher than the cost of action.” Investing now will pay off soon and strengthen Europe's economy. #CleanIndustrialDeal #ActionPlanforAffordableEnergy #LightingTheWayAheadTogether

Back when I was in strategy consulting, I worked with multiple CFOs and Procurement leaders on energy spend management. What struck me: energy is a significant cost, but is notoriously hard to manage. Volumes and prices are fluctuating and fragmented ― getting to the bottom of it often requires a top-down C-level mandate. 🤯 By the time you have clarity, the moment to act is gone. And if you are aiming for real-time optimization? Forget it ― you're flying blind. That's why we built Companion.energy to flip the script. We start from a real-time, granular energy cost balance: - How much energy do you consume or produce? - Which contracts are setting the price? - What is that price? - And what's the resulting cost? Remember, you can't steer what you can't see. Here's a quick demo of how it works. ⚡ #energymanagement #energyprocurement #energyflexibility

A country that remains tethered to imported fossil fuels will keep importing geopolitical risk along with them. A country that builds domestic clean power, domestic manufacturing, domestic storage and domestic mineral processing capacity will be better placed to ride out external shocks. That is the strategic opportunity hidden inside the present turmoil, and India must move with urgency to convert this moment into a decisive shift toward energy sovereignty. We can accelerate this process by: 1. Raising renewable target to 1,500 GW by 2030. 2. Strengthening grids in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and adding more Renewable Energy Management Centres. 3. Mandating battery storage in all tenders; boosting pumped hydro, and cutting GST for storage assets to 5%. 4. Scaling clean cooking via Ujjwala-linked induction cooker aggregation. 5. Electrifying new buses fully, 2/3-wheelers by 2030, cars/trucks by 2035; fixing advanced chemistry-cell battery storage PLI. 6. Executing 100 GW nuclear by 2047 and diversifying critical minerals from China. My article in todays Business Standard: https://lnkd.in/gn9dc3-r

One of the biggest reasons deals stall isn’t that buyers doubt your solution—it’s that they doubt their ability to make the right choice. Matt Dixon's research for The JOLT Effect found that 40% of lost deals are driven by customer indecision, not preference for a competitor. And Brent Adamson's new book The Framemaking Sale highlights that customers with high decision confidence are TEN TIMES more likely to make a purchase. Here are a few ways you can help buyers build confidence in themselves: 1. Reduce Decision Complexity According to Gartner, 77% of B2B buyers report their last purchase was “very complex or difficult." Streamlining options, providing decision guides, or recommending a clear best-fit reduces “analysis paralysis” and gives buyers confidence they aren’t missing something. 2. Reframe Risk in Personal Terms Buyers often fear personal blame more than organizational failure. Use case studies and peer validation to show how people in their role succeeded—helping them feel safe and supported in their choice. 3. Provide Buyer Enablement Tools Tools like ROI calculators, pre-built board decks, or checklists reduce the burden on them and demonstrate that they have what they need to decide. 4. Normalize Their Concerns The JOLT Effect also emphasizes “normalizing indecision” as a critical skill—buyers need to know hesitation is common and that you can guide them through it. Framing uncertainty as a normal step in the process reduces the shame that often delays action. 5. Signal Post-Decision Support Harvard Business Review highlights that buyers who see strong post-sale support are more confident in making initial commitments. Show them the path forward—onboarding, customer success, peer communities—so they know they won’t be left alone after purchase. Helping buyers feel personally confident and protected is as important as proving your product’s value. The most successful marketers and sellers don’t just build confidence in the solution—they build confidence in the decision-maker.

You can't treat every forecast the same. More uncertainty means more risk, and you want to deal with it correctly. After building forecasting models at P&G, Unilever, and Squarespace, I've learned there are three ways to manage uncertainty: 𝟭) 𝗔𝘃𝗼𝗶𝗱 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 The more uncertainty, the fewer assumptions you should include. Why? Because if you add multiple variables on top of each other, their margin of error multiplies. If you base the forecast on many assumptions, it's nearly impossible to determine which one was accurate and which wasn't. So, keep your models as simple as possible. Isolate the variables. You can always add additional assumptions later once you better understand the correlations. 𝟮) 𝗥𝘂𝗻 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁-𝗜𝗳 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 It's your job as a finance leader to quantify the risk of a forecast. The easiest way to do that is by changing individual inputs and noting how much impact that has on the forecast. For example, if a 5% price change affects the revenue forecast by 25%, that's a major risk you'll need to call out. 𝟯) 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝗮 𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 Sometimes analysts make the mistake of assuming ranges make it look like they aren't confident in their forecast. But a well-measured range is critical for two reasons: One, it shows the order of magnitude of risk. Your CFO knows what's a conservative estimate to communicate to investors. Two, it enables scenario planning. Leaders can plan contingency measures if results are at the lower end of the range. 𝗜𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗺, 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹: 1. Reduce the number of assumptions 2. Estimate the risk by running sensitivity analysis 3. Provide ranges instead of point estimates Which approach do you find most useful? Comment below 👇 -Christian Wattig 📌 Get my 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲 + 𝟰𝟲 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 (free) here: https://lnkd.in/eBAmSF_6 

Over the years, I’ve observed that people generally fall into three patterns when dealing with ambiguity: 1. Analysis Paralysis: Some #leaders feel they need more data or additional perspectives before moving forward. This can lead to excessive analysis, where people spend more time planning than executing. The risk here is that opportunities may be missed or competitors may gain an edge while the team hesitates. 2. Avoidance: Others choose to avoid decisions, hoping that clarity will somehow emerge on its own. They side-line pressing decisions, preferring to wait for more guidance or resources that might never come. 3. Reactive Decision-Making: In an attempt to cope with the stress of ambiguity, some people make impulsive decisions without fully considering the consequences. This can lead to a sense of busyness without strategic direction, where energy is spent, but little progress is achieved. Coaching Strategies for Embracing Ambiguity One of my roles as a coach is to help leaders develop a mindset that sees ambiguity not as a threat but as an opportunity for growth. Here are a few strategies that I work on with clients: a. Build a "North Star": I encourage leaders to define their guiding values and principles, which can act as a consistent touchpoint even in uncertain situations. When they are clear on their purpose and values, they can navigate ambiguity without needing every answer in advance. b. Embrace Iteration: Leaders often feel that they need to make perfect decisions on the first try, which can be paralyzing. We work on shifting this mindset toward an iterative approach—taking smaller, calculated risks, testing, learning, and then pivoting as needed. c. Strengthen Tolerance for Discomfort: Learning to sit with discomfort and accept that uncertainty is a part of the process can be transformative. Leaders who can do this build resilience and tend to make decisions more effectively over time. d. Focus on What is Known: Instead of getting lost in the unknown, I help leaders focus on what they do know and can control. By starting with small, achievable steps, they can gradually reduce ambiguity and create a clearer path forward. e. Encourage Open Communication: Finally, I coach leaders to communicate transparently with their teams. When they are open about the unknowns, they can cultivate a culture of collective problem-solving rather than individual stress. Leading through ambiguity requires a combination of #adaptability, #resilience, and #self-awareness. Leaders who master these skills become more effective decision-makers and empower their teams to navigate challenges confidently, even when clarity is scarce. Every leader has the potential to learn these skills, and with time and practice, they can turn uncertainty into an opportunity for personal and organizational growth. #archanaparmar #leadershipdevelopment

Navigating Sales in an Uncertain Economy: The Power of Existing Customers A founder recently asked me a critical question: "When the pipeline looks dry, and the economy is turbulent for my industry, how should I navigate?" It’s a challenge many businesses face. In uncertain times, new customer acquisition slows, budgets tighten, and sales teams feel the pressure to generate fresh leads. However, the most effective strategy isn’t always looking outward—it’s strengthening existing customer relationships. A data from HubSpot highlights this: 72% of company revenue comes from existing customers, while only 28% comes from new ones. Yet, many businesses continue to prioritize acquisition over expansion. A Strategic Shift: From Hunting to Nurturing Instead of asking, “Where can I find new customers?” the right question is: “How can I help my existing customers sustain, grow, and navigate this phase?” Engaging with current customers provides critical insights into shifting industry trends, evolving needs, and new challenges. These conversations often reveal untapped opportunities for value creation, whether through: ✔ Cost optimization—helping them do more with less. ✔ Technology enhancements—offering solutions that improve efficiency. ✔ Revenue acceleration—identifying ways your product can drive business growth. A Case in Point During a market slowdown, one of our key customers—a well-established company in their industry—was struggling to acquire new business. Their growth had stalled, and they were losing deals to competitors that offered a more modern, tech-driven experience. Rather than focusing on immediate renewals, we sat down with their leadership team to understand the core issue. Through deeper discussions, we uncovered that their existing technology was outdated, making them less competitive. By integrating modern tech capabilities through our solution, we helped them close this gap. Within months, they were not only retaining existing clients but also winning new deals, putting them back on a growth trajectory. This didn’t just secure our relationship—it reinforced our position as a strategic partner rather than just a vendor. Go Deep, Not Just Wide Market turbulence is not the time to sell harder—it’s the time to engage smarter. Businesses that embed themselves in their customers’ success unlock long-term growth. 📌 Deepen engagement by identifying new use cases and challenges. 📌 Leverage customer insights to refine offerings and improve solutions. 📌 Encourage referrals—a warm introduction from an existing customer is far more effective than a cold outreach. Final Thought Sustainable growth is not just about expanding the pipeline—it’s about maximizing the value within it. The companies that thrive during downturns are those that prioritize relationships over transactions. How do you approach customer retention and expansion in uncertain times? Let’s discuss. 👇 #Sales #SaaS #RevenueGrowth #B2BSales #SalesStrategy